Bold Moves, Big Shifts: September’s M&A and PE Story

In a year marked by restraint and realignment, September 2025 demonstrated that while capital may rest, it never retreats—it simply sharpens its focus. Deal counts remained measured, but transaction value and scale told another story: consolidation is accelerating, and bold capital has returned.

At Total Finance Resolver, we’ve tracked over two decades of global capital movements—and the latest shifts are reshaping how investors define value and conviction. Here’s our take on how the past month redefined the M&A and private equity narrative and what early Q4 signals suggest for the road ahead.

Snapshot: Major Deals & Developments (September – Early October 2025)

1. Electronic Arts’ $55 Billion Take-Private

On September 29, 2025, Electronic Arts (EA) announced plans to transition into a privately held company through a $55 billion leveraged buyout, the largest of its kind in corporate history. The transaction—led by a consortium featuring Saudi

Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), Silver Lake, and Affinity Partners—values the gaming giant at $210 per share, representing roughly a 25% premium over its pre-announcement price of $168.32.

The deal will be financed through approximately $36 billion in equity and $20 billion in debt, with completion anticipated by mid-2026, subject to regulatory and shareholder clearance. This move underscores the revival of large-scale private transactions in the technology and gaming industries, where investors increasingly prioritize intellectual property ownership, recurring revenue, and content ecosystem control.

Takeaway (TFR Insight): Even amid high interest rates, investor appetite for durable, cash-generating assets remains robust—particularly within sectors that blend community engagement, subscription income, and long-term revenue stability.

2. Fifth Third Bancorp’s $10.9 Billion Acquisition of Comerica

On October 6, 2025, Fifth Third Bancorp unveiled an all-stock merger with Comerica Inc., valuing the transaction at approximately $10.9 billion. Comerica shareholders will receive 1.8663 Fifth Third shares for each Comerica share they own—a structure that delivers an estimated 17–20% premium based on recent trading prices.

Following completion, Comerica shareholders are expected to hold around 27% of the combined company, which will rank as the ninth-largest U.S. bank by total assets, with a consolidated balance sheet near $288 billion. The deal, pending approval, is scheduled to close in Q1 2026.

Takeaway (TFR Insight): Regional lenders are pursuing scale-driven mergers to strengthen balance sheets and compliance capacity in a shifting policy landscape. For many mid-tier banks, strategic consolidation has become the new path to resilience and relevance.

Macro Trends Reshaping Deal Activity

1. Fewer Deals, Larger Checks

During the first half of 2025, global private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) deal value climbed 18.7% year-over-year to reach $386.4 billion, even as the number of completed deals declined by roughly 6%. By August 2025, total deal value had surpassed $480 billion, about 10% higher than the same period in 2024.

PE-led leveraged buyouts (LBOs) accounted for $150.3 billion by midyear—already equivalent to 70% of all 2024 activity.

TFR Interpretation: While liquidity remains strong, investors are becoming increasingly selective and conviction-driven, concentrating capital in fewer, more defensible assets.

2. Secondary Markets Take Center Stage

In H1 2025, global private market secondary transactions rose 51% year-over-year to about $102 billion. Of this, $59.5 billion stemmed from fund secondaries, and $42.7 billion from direct secondaries. Forecasts suggest 2025 volumes could exceed $175 billion, as fund managers turn to continuation vehicles and GP-led secondaries to unlock liquidity amid slower exits.

TFR Interpretation: The secondary market is no longer an emergency valve—it’s becoming the engine of liquidity, offering flexibility and extended optionality to GPs and LPs alike.

3. The Middle Market Pinch

While mega-deals dominate headlines, mid-market M&A continues to face headwinds from valuation gaps, financing friction, and regulatory caution. To manage risk, sponsors increasingly employ phased investments, performance-based earn-outs, and hybrid structures.

TFR Interpretation: The middle market is feeling the squeeze—capital is concentrating at the top, rewarding scale, predictability, and leadership clarity.

4. U.S. Private Equity: Focused and Scaling Up

In the first half of 2025, U.S. private equity deal value surged nearly 50% from the same period in 2024, despite a 6% dip in transaction volume. Exit activity jumped 77% year-over-year, driven by large-scale divestitures. Roughly 37% of all PE deals in 2025 have exceeded $1 billion, versus 20% in 2020. LBO multiples have expanded by 0.8× EBITDA, returning to early-2022 valuation levels.

TFR Interpretation: Investors continue to favor market leaders and proven operators, paying premiums for stability and disciplined growth strategies.

What Boutique and Active Firms Should Focus On

1. Differentiate or Disappear

Deep sector expertise and measurable operational value creation are now decisive differentiators in an increasingly competitive fundraising environment.

2. Structure for Flexibility

Tools such as staged commitments, convertible instruments, and earn-outs help firms align conviction with caution.

3. Prioritize Proprietary Access

Strong origination pipelines and co-investment alliances are emerging as core differentiators in today’s tighter deal landscape.

4. Stay Exit-Ready

With IPO avenues limited, secondary routes and partial sales are vital to maintain liquidity and investor confidence.

5. Manage Leverage Prudently

Higher funding costs call for robust stress-testing, realistic underwriting, and strong covenant protection.

6. Communicate Transparently

Clear, consistent communication remains one of the strongest levers of LP trust and market credibility.

Looking Ahead: Early Q4 Themes

• Rate trajectory: Will late-Q4 easing reignite mid-market activity?

• Sectoral rotation: Continued interest expected in AI infrastructure, health-tech, and energy transition strategies.

• Liquidity evolution: Continuation and secondary funds likely to outpace direct exits.

• Regulatory recalibration: New oversight from U.S. and European bodies may reshape deal structuring into 2026.

Final Word

September 2025 reaffirmed a defining market truth: the new era of dealmaking favors focus over frenzy. Mega-transactions may dominate the headlines, but beneath the surface, it’s disciplined capital deployment, innovative structuring, and deep sector insight that define the winners.

At Total Finance Resolver, we help investors and executives navigate complexity with clarity. The future of finance favors those who act with precision, foresight, and purpose. Schedule a strategy conversation with our advisory team today to turn market volatility into your next growth opportunity.